Responding to COVID-19 in Europe and Central Asia by focusing on the most vulnerable

April 3, 2020

COVID-19 is already affecting fragile economies in Europe and Central Asia and impact household incomes, employment and welfare. UNDP’s response will focus on vulnerability assessments and follow-up policy support to address the critical areas of economic and social protection systems, and supporting countries in introducing “recovering better by recovering greener” approaches by promoting environmental innovation and climate solutions.

In Europe and Central Asia, the capacity of health systems to cope with the pandemic is in question. UNDP has already been working with governments to procure necessary medicines, renovate hospitals and health clinics and improve health care services. These already developed systems are now being adapted to respond quickly to the COVID-19 pandemic, starting from the procurement of personal protective equipment and other relevant medical equipment, at government request.

The digital transformation was already a reality in Europe and Central Asia, as UNDP and many governments have begun to transfer legal, social and civil service delivery online. Accelerated digitalization can be expected to create new business models and opportunities for digital leapfrogging in traditional industries. UNDP is helping countries and businesses shift necessary services online, so that everyone can continue doing business despite the increasing need to isolate and limit exposure.

UNDP is supporting countries to conduct economic and social impact assessments

The high incidence of the corona virus in Europe has already had negative economic effects on the Europe and Central Asia region, which are likely to intensify. It is impacting production networks and substantially restricting activity in sectors such as agriculture, tourism, trade and industry, and energy. Countries relying on trade with China and Europe will be especially affected. UNDP is already supporting countries to conduct economic and social impact assessments.

In the Europe and Central Asia region, the many people living with HIV, TB, viral hepatitis and underlying non-communicable diseases are more vulnerable to the risks of the corona virus. In addition, COVID-19 will impact the supply chain availability for necessary medicines and divert attention for care of these ongoing diseases.

In many countries, populations are shrinking and ageing—trends that exacerbate strains on social protection and health care systems. In others, a rapid growth in the youth population is straining both labour market absorption capacities and youth-related social services. These differences have different implications for coping mechanisms and measures to respond to the pandemic.

The Western Balkans have the highest unemployment rate in the region, concentrated in certain ethnic and social demographics such as youth, Roma, women and persons with disabilities. Social protection systems are poorly targeted, and efforts to more closely link social assistance and employment support programmes have only recently been made. The pandemic will put pressure on these systems and efforts.

The economic and social impact of COVID-19 will be strong, and economic recovery slow

In Eastern Europe and South Caucasus, labour markets feature large shares of informal and precarious work, as well as significant numbers of labour migrants and “working poor”. Unemployment benefits are either low or non-existent and many workers fall outside of traditional social protection systems. Formal social insurance systems have relatively generous coverage, so economic recovery and social support initiatives should target the most vulnerable. Additionally, opportunities for decent jobs are already particularly scarce for vulnerable groups like youth, low-skilled workers, people with disabilities, and residents of small towns and rural areas. The economic and social impact of COVID-19 will be strong, and economic recovery slow.

While the Central Asian countries have experienced solid economic growth over the last decade, this growth has been based predominantly on large exports and not matched by growth in decent employment opportunities. Migration and remittances compensate for this lack, which will be threatened by recessions in host countries resulting from COVID-19, furthering economic troubles at home.

UNDP helps vulnerable groups to access accurate information

In this COVID-19 crisis, access to accurate information and response efforts need to particularly target groups that may be at most risk but are excluded from mainstream and social media. UNDP helps in identifying those who may otherwise be missed or excluded, in supporting the flow of information in language that they understand, and in providing feedback to authorities on the impacts of measures on communities.

The COVID-19 crisis has shown the critical importance of effective and responsive governance systems and institutions. UNDP can work with governments and civil society to reassure citizens that the strict measures in place for the duration of the crisis will not remain a new status quo and return to regular governance mechanisms takes place quickly and taking into consideration the learned experiences from the crisis.

A crisis of this scale resulting in border closures and inward looking politics has the potential to trigger unrest and outbreaks of violence, limit ongoing diplomacy efforts and test international crisis management systems. In a region with a legacy of conflict, pandemic responses need to transcend domestic or international mistrust and build confidence and relationships between governments and their citizens. At the same time, crises like this are an opportunity for increased collaboration and solidarity between governments and within communities to preserve and rebuild societies.

The crisis creates additional risks for women

Women’s labour participation in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia region is often informal or part-time. Many risk losing their jobs or seeing their wages decrease as a consequence of the increasing of their domestic burden. The gender pay gap is most likely to rise during and after the outbreak. Low-income and migrant worker women are especially vulnerable, especially in view of travel restrictions that could limit their chances of supporting their families.

In this region, one in three women experience physical and/or psychological violence, mostly from their partners. Prolonged quarantine and isolation conditions exposes them to greater risk while cutting off sources of support.